ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT WED JUN 18 2003 AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE PAST 2 DAYS...CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO FLUCTUATE QUITE DRAMATICALLY BETWEEN THE DAY AND NIGHTIME PERIODS AND BLANCA IS CURRENTLY GOING THROUGH ANOTHER WANING PERIOD IN THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN. EARLIER IMAGES DURING THE DAY SUGGEST THAT AN EYE WAS TRYING TO APPEAR IN THE CIRRUS CANOPY...BUT EASTERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR HAS BEEN DISRUPTING THE DEVELOPMENT PROCESS. HOWEVER...THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS INCREASED SLIGHTLY TO 55 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 KT FROM TAFB AND 45 KT FROM BOTH SAB AND AFWA. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT BLANCA COULD BE A LITTLE STRONGER GIVEN ITS RATHER COMPACT SIZE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/03. THERE REMAINS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC REASONING FROM THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF ADVISORY PACKAGES. BLANCA REMAINS EMBEDDED IN A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WITH A SLIGHT WESTERLY NUDGE BEING INDUCED BY THE UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW. WHILE THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE NHC TRACK GUIDANCE...THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE 5-DAY PERIOD. THIS APPEARS REASONABLE GIVEN THE LARGE-SCALE RIDGE PATTERN...ALBEIT WEAK...THAT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NORTH OF BLANCA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS ONLY SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF AND SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE VARIOUS GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS. BLANCA MAY BE SMALL...BUT THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN QUITE TENACIOUS IN FIGHTING OFF INTERMITTENT MODERATE UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLY SHEAR. THE CYCLONE PROBABLY ONLY HAS ONE MORE 12-18 HOUR PERIOD REMAINING TONIGHT WHEN DEEP CONVECTION MAY REDEVELOP AROUND THE CENTER AND POSSIBLY ALLOW BLANCA TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH. AFTER THAT...ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WILL INCREASE TO SOUTHEASTERLY AT 35-45 KT. THE COMBINATION OF COOLER SSTS AND INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD BRING ABOUT A STEADY WEAKENING TREND BY 36 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/0300Z 16.7N 104.8W 55 KT 12HR VT 19/1200Z 16.8N 105.3W 60 KT 24HR VT 20/0000Z 16.9N 105.9W 65 KT 36HR VT 20/1200Z 16.9N 106.5W 60 KT 48HR VT 21/0000Z 16.9N 107.2W 55 KT 72HR VT 22/0000Z 16.8N 108.3W 45 KT 96HR VT 23/0000Z 16.8N 110.0W 35 KT 120HR VT 24/0000Z 16.8N 112.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:55 UTC