ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT TUE JUN 17 2003 THE FIRST VISIBLE IMAGES ARE NOT ENTIRELY CONCLUSIVE BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE CENTER IS NOT AS FAR TO THE NORTHWEST AS PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED. WE WILL ASSUME THAT THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE MOTION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. STEERING CURRENTS ARE WEAK BUT THE TRACK GUIDANCE SHOWS A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD DRIFT...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THIS WOULD TAKE THE CENTER ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE COAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER A NORTHEASTWARD DEVIATION FROM THIS TRACK OR AN UNEXPECTED EXPANSION OF THE WIND FIELD WOULD REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF WATCHES OR WARNINGS FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO. THE CYCLONE IS NEAR...OR AT...TROPICAL STORM STATUS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 KT FROM TAFB MIAMI AND SAB WASHINGTON AND 35 KT FROM THE AIR FORCE WEATHER AGENCY. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM IS SITUATED OVER VERY WARM WATER...THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME EASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE AREA AND UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS BEING RESTRICTED OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST BRINGS THE WINDS TO 50 KT AS PER THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. THE GLOBAL MODELS WEAKEN THE SYSTEM...BUT OF COURSE THEY LACK ADEQUATE RESOLUTION TO PROPERLY SIMULATE INTENSITY CHANGE. CURIOUSLY...THE GFDL MODEL SHOWS SLIGHT STRENGTHENING DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND THEN LOSES IT. FORECASTER PASCH/RAPPAPORT FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/1500Z 16.6N 103.3W 30 KT 12HR VT 18/0000Z 17.0N 103.5W 40 KT 24HR VT 18/1200Z 17.4N 103.8W 45 KT 36HR VT 19/0000Z 17.8N 104.1W 50 KT 48HR VT 19/1200Z 18.1N 104.6W 50 KT 72HR VT 20/1200Z 18.5N 105.5W 45 KT 96HR VT 21/1200Z 18.8N 106.5W 40 KT 120HR VT 22/1200Z 19.0N 107.5W 35 KT NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:55 UTC