ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT SAT MAY 24 2003 IT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO ACCEPT BY LOOKING AT THE CURRENT IR IMAGES THAT THERE WAS A 40-KNOT TROPICAL CYCLONE A FEW HOURS AGO. THERE MUST HAVE BEEN ONE SINCE QUICKSCAT DATA INDICATED SO. A TIGHT SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS DEVOID OF CONVECTION IS CLEARLY SEEN ON THE LATEST AVAILABLE HIGH RESOLUTION VIS IMAGES. THIS PATTERN COULD BARELY SUPPORT A MAXIMUM INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS USING SOLELY CONVENTIONAL DVORAK TECHNIQUE. NEVERTHERELESS...THE CYCLONE IS ON A WEAKENING TREND OVER COLD WATER AND SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 24 HOURS OR SO. THE SWIRL IS MOVING 280 DEGREES AT 14 KNOTS BUT IT SHOULD TURN MORE TO THE WEST AS IT SPINS DOWN GRADUALLY. MOST OF THE MODELS DISSIPATE THE CYCLONE IN 24 HOUR OR SO. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 25/0300Z 14.7N 134.0W 35 KT 12HR VT 25/1200Z 15.0N 136.0W 25 KT 24HR VT 26/0000Z 15.0N 139.0W 20 KT...DISSIPATING 36HR VT 26/1200Z 15.0N 141.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 27/0000Z 15.0N 143.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 28/0000Z 15.0N 147.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 29/0000Z 15.0N 151.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:55 UTC