ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT SAT MAY 24 2003 AS SEEN FOR THE PAST TWO NIGHTS...CONVECTION HAS FLARED UP NEAR THE CENTER OF ANDRES. HOWEVER...TONIGHTS BURST IS NOWHERE NEAR AS IMPRESSIVE AS THAT OF THE LAST TWO NIGHTS...AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER REMAINS SOMEWHAT EXPOSED SOUTHWEST OF THE CONVECTION. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM SAB AND AFWA AND 30 KT FROM TAFB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT BASED ON THIS AND THE CONVECTIVE FLARE-UP. ANDRES IS ABOUT TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATER...AND IT IS ENCOUNTERING INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR. THIS COMBINATION SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO DISSIPATE IN 24-36 HR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST KEEPS ANDRES AS A REMNANT LOW THROUGH 96 HR. HOWEVER...THIS MAY BE GENEROUS...AS NONE OF THE MODELS HANG ON TO THE REMAINS OF THE SYSTEM FOR THAT LONG. THE REMNANT LOW MAY WELL WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL WAVE BEFORE 96 HR. THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 285/16. ANDRES IS FORECAST TO TURN MORE WESTWARD WITH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AS IT WEAKENS...AND CONTINUE A WESTWARD MOTION UNTIL IT DISSIPATES. THE TRACK FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/0900Z 13.8N 129.7W 35 KT 12HR VT 24/1800Z 14.2N 131.9W 30 KT 24HR VT 25/0600Z 14.4N 134.8W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 36HR VT 25/1800Z 14.5N 137.6W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 26/0600Z 14.5N 140.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 27/0600Z 14.5N 144.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 28/0600Z 14.5N 148.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 29/0600Z...DISSIPATED NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:55 UTC