ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT FRI MAY 23 2003 VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CLOUD CENTER WELL WEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION WHICH HAS DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY. DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE DECREASED AND THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS REDUCED TO 35 KNOTS. THE GFS SHOWS STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PERSISTING OVER THE SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS AND...IN COMBINATION WITH COOLER SSTS...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS DISSIPATION BY 3 TO 4 DAYS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/18. THE GLOBAL MODELS ALL KEEP ANDRES ON A MOSTLY WESTWARD TRACK UNTIL DISSIPATION AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS GUIDANCE. IN CONTRAST...THE MEDIUM AND DEEP BAMS AND THE STATISTICAL DYNAMICAL MODEL SHOW A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST THEN NORTH...BUT ANDRES IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO WEAK AND SHALLOW TO RESPOND TO A DEEP LAYER STEERING. FORECASTER LAWRENCE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/2100Z 13.2N 126.9W 35 KT 12HR VT 24/0600Z 13.9N 129.6W 35 KT 24HR VT 24/1800Z 14.1N 132.2W 30 KT 36HR VT 25/0600Z 14.2N 134.6W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 48HR VT 25/1800Z 14.3N 137.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 72HR VT 26/1800Z 14.5N 141.0W 20 KT...DISSIPATING 96HR VT 27/1800Z 14.5N 145.0W 20 KT...DISSIPATING 120HR VT 28/1800Z 14.5N 149.5W 20 KT...DISSIPATING NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:55 UTC