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Tropical Depression ONE-E (Text)

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT TUE MAY 20 2003
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E IS LOOKING MORE HEALTHY THIS MORNING...
WITH A PERSISTENT AREA OF COLD CONVECTIVE TOPS NEAR THE CENTER
AND THE BEGINNING OF AN OUTER BAND IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT.
THE BIG QUESTION IS WHERE EXACTLY IS THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER? IF
THE CENTER IS NEAR WHERE THE CONVECTIVE CURVATURE SUGGESTS...
THEN THE CYCLONE IS FARTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT AND IS
LIKELY A TROPICAL STORM IN AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE
FROM TAFB.  HOWEVER...TWO SSM/I OVERPASSES HINT THAT THE CENTER
IS ACTUALLY PARTLY EXPOSED TO THE WEST OR NORTHWEST OF THE
PRIMARY CONVECTION.  THE INITIAL POSITION WILL COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN EXTREMES...AND THE INITIAL
INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 30 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH ESTIMATES FROM SAB
AND AFWA.

THE CYCLONE SEEMS TO BE MOVING A LITTLE FASTER...AND THE INITIAL
MOTION IS NOW 270/10.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SUBSTANTIAL
MID/UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION...WHICH
SHOULD KEEP THE SYSTEM ON A BASICALLY WESTWARD TRACK FOR 12-24
HR. AFTER THAT...LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE ANTICYCLONE TO
SLOWLY WEAKEN...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW A MORE WEST- NORTHWESTERLY
MOTION FOR THE DEPRESSION.  NHC GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES WITH
THE DIRECTION...BUT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE SPEED OF
MOTION BETWEEN THE FAST GFS AND BAMD AND THE SLOW GFDL AND NHC91. 
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY LEFT OF AND NOTABLY FASTER
THAN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...BUT NOT AS FAST AS THE GFS AND BAMS.

THE CYCLONE CURRENTLY HAS FAIR TO GOOD OUTFLOW IN ALL
DIRECTIONS...AND IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE IT SHOULD BECOME A
TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS INDICATE
GENERALLY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS THROUGH 48-72 HR...WITH
SOME INCREASE IN SHEAR POSSIBLE AFTERWARDS AS THE CYCLONE MOVES
INTO COOLER WATER.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST THUS CALLS FOR STEADY
STRENGTHENING THROUGH 48 HR AND WEAKENING AFTER 72 HR IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL.  ONE POTENTIAL INHIBITING FACTOR
IS A LARGE AREA OF MID/UPPER-LEVEL DRY AIR SEEN IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY JUST NORTHWEST OF THE DEPRESSION.  SHOULD THIS AIR
ENTRAIN INTO THE CYCLONE IT COULD SLOW OR PREVENT DEVELOPMENT.

FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      20/0900Z  9.7N 104.7W    30 KT
 12HR VT     20/1800Z  9.8N 106.0W    35 KT
 24HR VT     21/0600Z 10.1N 107.7W    45 KT
 36HR VT     21/1800Z 10.6N 109.6W    50 KT
 48HR VT     22/0600Z 11.1N 111.6W    55 KT
 72HR VT     23/0600Z 12.0N 116.0W    55 KT
 96HR VT     24/0600Z 13.5N 120.5W    45 KT
120HR VT     25/0600Z 14.5N 125.0W    35 KT
 
 
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