ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT MON MAY 19 2003 THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TO THE SOUTH OF MANZANILLO MEXICO HAS GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. ANIMATION OF VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWED A DECENT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED CONVECTIVE BAND WAS OBSERVED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM...AND THE DATA T-NUMBER FROM THE TROPICAL ANALYSIS AND FORECAST BRANCH IS NOW 2.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. THEREFORE THE SYSTEM IS BEING NUMBERED AS THE FIRST DEPRESSION OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC SEASON. THE CYCLONE IS OVER VERY WARM WATER BUT THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE AT THE MOMENT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOR THIS ADVISORY IS CONSERVATIVE...AND ABOUT 10 KT BELOW THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. BEST GUESS AT INITIAL MOTION IS 270/8. THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A WELL-ESTABLISHED MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK DURING THE PERIOD. THIS IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO...BUT SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF...THE NOGAPS MODEL TRACK. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/0300Z 9.6N 103.5W 30 KT 12HR VT 20/1200Z 9.7N 104.8W 35 KT 24HR VT 21/0000Z 10.0N 106.3W 40 KT 36HR VT 21/1200Z 10.5N 108.0W 45 KT 48HR VT 22/0000Z 11.0N 110.0W 50 KT 72HR VT 23/0000Z 12.0N 114.0W 50 KT 96HR VT 24/0000Z 13.0N 118.0W 45 KT 120HR VT 25/0000Z 14.0N 122.0W 35 KT NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:55 UTC