ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION PETER DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 AM EST WED DEC 10 2003 THE CYCLONE IS DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. DVORAK CONSTRAINTS KEEP THE WIND SPEED AT 45 KNOTS...BUT PETER HAS LIKELY FALLEN BELOW STORM STRENGTH AND THE OFFICIAL INITIAL INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS. THE APPROACHING FRONT HAS REACHED THE OUTER CIRCULATION OF PETER AND STRONG SHEAR IS EVIDENT. THE 00Z GFS MODEL SHOWS THE WEAKENING CYCLONE ABSORBED BY THE FRONT WITHIN 24 HOURS...WHILE THE UKMET AND NOGAPS MODELS TAKE A LITTLE LONGER TO DISSIPATE THE SURFACE CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/10...A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT ABOUT A MOSTLY NORTHEASTWARD TRACK AND INCREASING FORWARD SPEED AS THE CYCLONE GETS SWEPT AWAY BY THE APPROACHING FRONTAL TROUGH. FORECASTER LAWRENCE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 10/0900Z 23.4N 37.1W 30 KT 12HR VT 10/1800Z 25.9N 36.6W 30 KT...DISSIPATING 24HR VT 11/0600Z 29.4N 33.9W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 36HR VT 11/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:50:02 UTC