ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM PETER DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 PM EST TUE DEC 09 2003 THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF PETER HAS DETERIORATED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND THERE IS LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION LEFT. SATELLITE INTENSITY CLASSIFICATIONS ARE FALLING AS FAST AS THE DVORAK CONSTRAINTS ALLOW. PETER FELL THROUGH THE CRACKS OF THE LAST TWO QUIKSCAT PASSES...SO THE INTENSITY IS RATHER UNCERTAIN. THE 45 KT ASSIGNED INTENSITY MAY BE GENEROUS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG UPPER-LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW APPROACHING THE CYCLONE...AND THIS...COUPLED WITH DECREASING WATER TEMPERATURES UNDERNEATH...MAKES IT QUITE LIKELY THAT THE WEAKENING TREND WILL CONTINUE. PETER WILL NOT BE ABLE TO DODGE THE APPROACHING FRONTAL ZONE...THE SAME ONE THAT ABSORBED ODETTE A COUPLE DAYS AGO...AND PETER IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THIS ZONE IN 24-36 HOURS. ALTERNATIVELY...PETER COULD DEGENERATE INTO A NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW IF THERE IS NO NEW DEEP CONVECTION DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 360/13. PETER IS EMBEDDED IN SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT...AND THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD PERSIST UNTIL DISSIPATION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE GFS GUIDANCE AND A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF ODETTE AND PETER...THE 2003 TROPICAL CYCLONE SEASON IS NOW THE LONGEST TROPICAL CYCLONE SEASON SINCE 1952...A YEAR IN WHICH THE FIRST TROPICAL STORM FORMED ON FEBRUARY 2ND AND THE LAST ONE DISSIPATED ON OCTOBER 28TH. ANA BECAME THE FIRST TROPICAL STORM OF 2003 BACK ON APRIL 21ST. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 10/0300Z 22.9N 37.0W 45 KT 12HR VT 10/1200Z 24.9N 36.7W 35 KT 24HR VT 11/0000Z 28.1N 36.0W 30 KT...DISSIPATING 36HR VT 11/1200Z...ABSORBED INTO FRONTAL ZONE NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:50:02 UTC