ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM PETER DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 PM EST TUE DEC 09 2003 PETER CONTINUES TO BE FAIRLY WELL-ORGANIZED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH DEEP CONVECTION AND SEVERAL CYCLONIC CURVED BANDS. IN FACT...PETER MAY HAVE BEEN A HURRICANE FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME EARLIER TODAY WHEN A BANDING-TYPE EYE WAS OBSERVED ON VISIBLE IMAGES. HOWEVER...THE EYE IS NO LONGER DISTINCT BUT THE CURRENT CLOUD PATTERN SUPPORTS AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS. PETER IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND NORTHEAST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. PETER SHOULD BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT 36 HOURS OR LESS AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS AND IT SHOULD THEN BECOME ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM. THIS IS BASICALLY THE SOLUTION PROVIDED BY GLOBAL MODELS. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 09/2100Z 21.4N 36.8W 60 KT 12HR VT 10/0600Z 23.0N 36.3W 50 KT 24HR VT 10/1800Z 26.0N 35.3W 40 KT 36HR VT 11/0600Z 29.3N 32.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 11/1800Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:50:02 UTC