ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM ODETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 PM EST SAT DEC 06 2003 THE CENTER HAS MOVED INLAND OVER SOUTHWESTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. AIR FORCE RECON AND QUIKSCAT INDICATE TROPICAL FORCE WINDS ARE STILL OCCURRING OVER THE WATERS IN THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST QUADRANTS OF THE STORM AND WARNINGS WILL BE LEFT UP OVER HISPANIOLA FOR THE TIME BEING. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 035/9. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THE STORM ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD AS IT GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES THAT IS MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC. BASED ON AIRCRAFT AND QUIKSCAT WINDS..THE WIND SPEED IS DECREASED TO 45 KNOTS. HOWEVER THERE COULD BE HIGHER WINDS OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RECENT INFRARED IMAGES ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE SHOWING A LARGE COLD SYMMETRIC CDO FEATURE PERSISTING OVER HISPANIOLA. THE GLOBAL MODELS ALL SHOW SOME STRENGTHENING AS ODETTE MOVES BACK OVER WATER AND MERGES WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH. THE CYCLONE PHASE FORECAST BASED ON THE 18Z GFS RUN NOW ON THE FSU WEBSITE SHOWS ODETTE QUICKLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN ADDITIONAL 5 TO 10 INCHES OF RAINFALL BEFORE THE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM HISPANIOLA. FORECASTER LAWRENCE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 07/0300Z 18.3N 71.1W 45 KT...OVER LAND 12HR VT 07/1200Z 19.9N 70.0W 35 KT...OVER WATER 24HR VT 08/0000Z 23.0N 66.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 08/1200Z 25.8N 62.3W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 09/0000Z 29.0N 57.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 10/0000Z 37.0N 46.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:50:02 UTC