ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA TROPICAL STORM ODETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 10...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 PM EST SAT DEC 06 2003 CORRECTED FOR INLAND STATUS IN FORECAST TABLE THE LAST FIX FROM THE RECON WAS AROUND 17Z AND INDICATED THAT THE CYCLONE WAS A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED BUT WINDS AND PRESSURE REMAIN AT 55 KNOTS AND 994 MB...RESPECTIVELY. THIS INTENSITY IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY DVORAK T-NUMBERS. SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER WITH AN IMPRESSIVE CURVED BAND TO THE EAST. THE NORTHERN CIRCULATION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS ALREADY AFFECTING THE BARAHONA PENINSULA AND THE ISLA BEATA WITH VERY HEAVY SQUALLS. THE WEATHER SHOULD WORSEN OVER HISPANIOLA TONIGHT AS ODETTE MAKES LANDFALL. SINCE THE CYCLONE HAS SLOWED DOWN THERE IS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME STRENGTHENING BEFORE LANDFALL AND ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT EXPECTED...IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH FOR ODETTE TO REACH MINIMAL HURRICANE STRENGTH OR TO PRODUCE HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS. THEREAFTER...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA AND PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS. ODETTE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL OVER THE ATLANTIC. ODETTE NOT ONLY HAS REFUSED TO INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS ANTICIPATED BUT IN FACT...IT HAS SLOWED DOWN. THE CYCLONE IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST ABOUT 6 KNOTS. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD SOON BEGIN TO ACCELERATE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AS IT GETS CAUGHT IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THIS FORECAST IS NOT DIFFERENT FROM THE SOLUTION PROVIDED BY GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. THE GFDL WAS ABLE TO CAPTURE THE CURRENT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IN THE LATEST RUN. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 06/2100Z 17.5N 71.8W 55 KT 12HR VT 07/0600Z 19.0N 71.5W 30 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 07/1800Z 21.5N 68.5W 30 KT...OVER WATER 36HR VT 08/0600Z 24.5N 64.5W 35 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 08/1800Z 27.5N 59.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:50:02 UTC