ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM ODETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 AM EST SAT DEC 06 2003 THE CLOUD PATTERN IS BETTER ORGANIZED THAN YESTERDAY. THERE IS DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND A WELL-DEFINED CURVED CLOUD BAND TO THE EAST. THE OUTFLOW HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED ON THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. T-NUMBERS ARE 3.5 FROM ALL AGENCIES SUGGESTING THAT THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS AT LEAST 55 KNOTS. THE MINIMUM PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 995 MB. HOWEVER THE DROP REPORTED WINDS OF 25 KNOTS SUGGESTING THAT IT DID NOT HIT THE CENTER AND THE PRESSURE COULD BE A LITTLE BIT LOWER. ODETTE HAS THE OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN SOME BEFORE LANDFALL AND ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT EXPECTED...IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH FOR ODETTE TO REACH MINIMAL HURRICANE STRENGTH. THEREAFTER...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL OVER THE ATLANTIC. ODETTE HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST ABOUT 10 TO 12 KNOTS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW BETWEEN A HIGH OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND A MAJOR MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS TROUGH IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WINTER OUTBREAK OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. AS THE TROUGH SWINGS EASTWARD...THE STEERING FLOW SHOULD INCREASE AND ODETTE SHOULD BEGIN TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...IN FACT... THEY ARE ON TOP OF EACH OTHER. THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS SHOULD BE VERY RELIABLE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS GUNS AND GUNA. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 06/1500Z 17.2N 71.9W 55 KT 12HR VT 07/0000Z 19.0N 71.0W 35 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 07/1200Z 21.2N 68.7W 30 KT...OVER WATER 36HR VT 08/0000Z 25.5N 64.0W 40 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 08/1200Z 29.5N 58.4W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 09/1200Z...ABSORBED BY LARGE LOW. NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:50:02 UTC