ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM ODETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 AM EST SAT DEC 06 2003 ODETTE HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND HAS ALSO STRENGTHENED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS BASED ON RECON AND SATELLITE DATA. THE LAST FLIGHT INTO ODETTE HAD TO BE TRUNCATED DUE TO INTENSE LIGHTNING AND SEVERE TURBULENCE. THEREFORE...THE MAX WINDS NEAR THE CENTER LIKELY WERE NOT SAMPLED...BUT RECON STILL FOUND 60 KT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AT 0433Z WHICH EQUATES TO ABOUT 50 KT SURFACE WINDS MORE THAN 40 NMI FROM THE RADAR CENTER. A 06/0310Z TRMM OVERPASS ALSO SHOWED AN 80 PERCENT CLOSED LOW-LEVEL EYE FEATURE...AND AN ELONGATED BUT CLOSED MID-LEVEL EYE. IN ADDITION...A T3.5/55 KT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED BY BOTH TAFB AND SAB. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 55 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 030/12. THE LAST TWO RECON FIX POSITIONS ALONG WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TRMM MICROWAVE DATA CONFIRMS THAT ODETTE HAS STARTED MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED. UNLIKE THIS TIME YESTERDAY WHEN THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE WAS SPREAD BETWEEN THE WINDWARD AND MONA PASSAGES...THERE IS MUCH BETTER CONVERGENCE AND AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS THIS MORNING ON A TRACK ACROSS WESTERN TO CENTRAL DOMINICAN REPUBLIC IN ABOUT 12 HOURS. AFTERWARDS...A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED ONCE ODETTE EMERGES OFF THE NORTH COAST OF HISPANIOLA BY 24 HOURS ...WITH RAPID ACCELERATION BEGINNING BY 36 HOURS AS A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND APPROACHING SURFACE COLD FRONT BEGIN TO AFFECT THE SYSTEM FROM THE WEST. BY 48 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER... COMPLETE TRANSITION INTO OR ABSORPTION BY AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW IS EXPECTED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SLIGHTLY LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH 12 HOURS...AND THEN BASICALLY BACK ON THE PREVIOUS TRACK BY 24 HOURS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE GFDL MODEL. NOW THAT ODETTE IS MOVING A LITTLE FASTER...THE UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR HAS DECREASED AND THE OUTFLOW PATTERN HAS EXPANDED SOMEWHAT TO THE SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...THERE IS VERY LITTLE TIME REMAINING FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR BEFORE LANDFALL...BUT ANOTHER 5 KT INCREASE IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA SHOULD QUICKLY WEAKEN ODETTE...AND THE CYCLONE MAY BE WEAKER THAN INDICATED AT 24 HOURS. AFTER THAT...THE ODETTE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL GALE AREA AS IT INTERACTS WITH A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND A COLD FRONT. THE GFDL MAKES ODETTE A 74 KT HURRICANE JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THIS SEEMS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME...ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF THE FACT THAT THE GFDL ALSO CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN THE CYCLONE AS IT MOVES OVER MOUNTAINOUS HISPANIOLA. THE GREATEST THREAT FROM ODETTE IS EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL OVER HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO THAT COULD CAUSE POTENTIALLY DEADLY FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 06/0900Z 16.5N 72.2W 55 KT 12HR VT 06/1800Z 18.2N 71.3W 55 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 07/0600Z 20.7N 69.3W 30 KT...OVER WATER 36HR VT 07/1800Z 24.2N 65.8W 35 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 08/0600Z 28.5N 60.7W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 09/0600Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:50:02 UTC