ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM ODETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 PM EST FRI DEC 05 2003 THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BEEN CHANGING FROM CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST TO BANDING DURING THE DAY. LAST AIR FORCE FIX FOUND A VERY TIGHT CENTER WITH A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 995 MB. THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE EXPANDING AND THE OUTFLOW HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED ON THE WESTERN QUADRANT. HOWEVER...SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 45 KNOTS. ALTHOUGH THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE...ODETTE HAS THE CHANCE TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE BEFORE IT CROSSES HISPANIOLA AND WEAKENS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. IN FACT...THE GFDL MAKES ODETTE A HURRICANE. ODETTE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY 48 HOURS AND THEREAFTER IT SHOULD BE ABSORBED BY A MUCH LARGER FRONTAL LOW. ODETTE HAS BEEN DRIFTING EASTWARD DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT...AS ANTICIPATED...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS BEGUN TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST A LITTLE BIT FASTER. THE STEERING PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BE CONTROLLED BY A MID-LEVEL HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN AND A STRONG MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO FOLLOW THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS BRINGING ODETTE OVER HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 12 AND 24 HOURS AND THEN OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 05/2100Z 15.0N 73.6W 45 KT 12HR VT 06/0600Z 16.5N 72.5W 55 KT 24HR VT 06/1800Z 19.0N 71.5W 30 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 07/0600Z 21.0N 69.5W 30 KT...OVER WATER 48HR VT 07/1800Z 24.5N 65.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 08/1800Z...ABSORBED BY A LARGER LOW NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:50:02 UTC