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Tropical Storm ODETTE (Text)

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TROPICAL STORM ODETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM EST THU DEC 04 2003
 
ODETTE CONTINUES TO SHOW A COLD CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST WITH CLOUD
TOPS TO -80C NEAR THE CENTER.  A RECENT SSM/I OVERPASS SHOWED
CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDS UNDER THE OVERCAST...ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE
WELL ENOUGH DEVELOPED TO CALL AN EYEWALL.  SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE ALL 35 KT...AND THAT IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY. 
HOWEVER...WITH THE COLD TOPS NEAR THE CENTER AND THE CURVATURE
UNDERNEATH...IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF ODETTE IS A BIT
STRONGER.  CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS CURRENTLY GOOD IN THE NORTHEASTERN
SEMICIRCLE AND POOR TO RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE.

THE MICROWAVE DATA INDICATES THE CENTER IS SOUTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUS
POSITION...SO THE INITIAL POSITION IS A SMALL RELOCATION.  THE
INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 055/7.  SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THAT A DEEP-LAYER WINTER STORM IS FORMING OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES AND ADJACENT WESTERN ATLANTIC.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS
ALL AGREE THIS SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AND MOVE EASTWARD...EVENTUALLY
DRAWING ODETTE TO THE NORTHEAST.  NHC TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES WITH
THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE
SPEED.  THE BAMD...BAMM...AND LBAR ARE MUCH FASTER WITH THE
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION....WHILE THE GFS...UKMET...GFDL...NOGAPS...AND
BAMS ARE MUCH SLOWER.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLOWER AND TO THE
RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...CALLING FOR A RELATIVELY SLOW MOTION
FOR THE FIRST 24 HR FOLLOWED BY ACCELERATION.

ODETTE IS CURRENTLY UNDER ABOUT 20 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL
SHEAR.  THERE IS A SMALL WINDOW FOR DEVELOPMENT BEFORE THE SHEAR
INCREASES AND A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE BAROCLINIC LOW TO
THE NORTH SWEEPS INTO THE SYSTEM. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR
STRENGTHENING FOR 12-24 HR...FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING DUE TO INCREASED
SHEAR...MOVEMENT OVER HISPANIOLA...AND EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. 
ODETTE SHOULD BE EXTRATROPICAL BY 48 HR AND ABSORBED INTO THE
ATLANTIC LOW BY 72 HR. 
 
ODETTE SHOULD BRING VERY HEAVY RAINS AND MUD SLIDES TO HISPANIOLA...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF HAITI IN AREAS WHERE THE SOIL IS
ALREADY BARE AND DEFOLIATED.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      05/0300Z 14.0N  75.0W    35 KT
 12HR VT     05/1200Z 15.8N  74.1W    45 KT
 24HR VT     06/0000Z 17.9N  73.3W    45 KT
 36HR VT     06/1200Z 21.4N  71.3W    40 KT
 48HR VT     07/0000Z 26.5N  67.5W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     08/0000Z...ABSORBED BY LARGE EXTRATROPICAL LOW
 
 
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