ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 38 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 PM EST WED OCT 22 2003 NICHOLAS IS STILL GENERATING DEEP CONVECTION...WHOSE TOPS ARE BEING SHEARED TO THE SOUTHEAST BY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. THERE IS NOT MUCH EVIDENCE OF CURVED BANDS AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. HOWEVER...A QUIKSCAT PASS OVER NICHOLAS A FEW HOURS AGO SHOWED UNCONTAMINATED WIND SPEEDS NEAR 30 KT OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CYCLONE...SO IT IS PRESUMED THAT WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE STILL OCCURRING IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT STRONG SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT NICHOLAS...SO WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO DISSIPATE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. LATEST CENTER FIXES SUGGEST SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND THE MOTION IS NOW ABOUT 325/10. NICHOLAS IS EXPECTED TO TURN GRADUALLY NORTHWARD...WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...AHEAD OF A LARGE MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...MAINLY DUE TO THE INCREASED INITIAL MOTION. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/0300Z 21.1N 55.9W 35 KT 12HR VT 23/1200Z 22.5N 56.5W 30 KT 24HR VT 24/0000Z 24.7N 56.9W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 36HR VT 24/1200Z 27.0N 57.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 48HR VT 25/0000Z...DISSIPATING NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:50:01 UTC