ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 37 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 PM EST WED OCT 22 2003 NICHOLAS CONSISTS OF A BROAD CIRCULATION OF LOW CLOUDS WITH A FEW STRONG CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDS TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE PROBABLY OCCURRING ONLY WITHIN THESE BANDS. THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY...THEREFORE THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND THEN DISSIPATE IN A DAY OR TWO. NICHOLAS APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT 7 KNOTS. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH IS FORECAST. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS GUNS AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/2100Z 20.1N 54.7W 35 KT 12HR VT 23/0600Z 20.7N 55.5W 30 KT 24HR VT 23/1800Z 22.5N 56.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 36HR VT 24/0600Z 25.0N 56.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED NNNN
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