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Tropical Storm NICHOLAS

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TROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  37
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM EST WED OCT 22 2003
 
NICHOLAS CONSISTS OF A BROAD CIRCULATION OF LOW CLOUDS WITH A FEW
STRONG CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDS TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS ARE PROBABLY OCCURRING ONLY WITHIN THESE BANDS. 
THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY...THEREFORE
THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND THEN DISSIPATE IN A DAY OR
TWO.
 
NICHOLAS APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT 7 KNOTS. A
GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH IS FORECAST. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
MODEL CONSENSUS GUNS AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      22/2100Z 20.1N  54.7W    35 KT
 12HR VT     23/0600Z 20.7N  55.5W    30 KT
 24HR VT     23/1800Z 22.5N  56.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 36HR VT     24/0600Z 25.0N  56.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     24/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
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