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Tropical Storm NICHOLAS

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TROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  36
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM EST WED OCT 22 2003
 
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF NICHOLAS IS BECOMING ILL-DEFINED...WITH A
PAIR OF VORTICITY CENTERS ROTATING ABOUT A COMMON CENTER.  THE
INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION WERE DETERMINED FROM THE MEAN CENTER
AND NOT THE CLOUD SWIRLS.  THE OVERALL MOTION NOW APPEARS TO BE
315/4.  NICHOLAS IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE NORTHWARD AND ACCELERATE
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING DEEP-LAYER TROUGH...AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE GFS AND GFDL SOLUTIONS.

A 9Z QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED PLENTY OF 30 KT VECTORS AND A SINGLE 35 KT
VECTOR IN CONVECTION-FREE AREAS...SUGGESTING THAT NICHOLAS IS STILL
A TROPICAL STORM...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE WILL REMAIN
35 KT. NICHOLAS TOOK A SHOT OF STRONG NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVERNIGHT
THAT HAS DRIVEN THE DEEP CONVECTION OVER 100 NMI SOUTHEAST OF THE
CENTER. WHILE THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH A LITTLE BIT OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...IT IS PROBABLY TOO LATE TO HELP NICHOLAS
REGENERATE. WITH THE CIRCULATION ALREADY POORLY DEFINED...NICHOLAS
MAY DISSIPATE EVEN SOONER THAN INDICATED BELOW...AS SUGGESTED BY
THE GFS. A CONTRARY VIEW IS PROVIDED BY THE NOGAPS AND CANADIAN
MODELS...WHICH HANG ON TO A CLOSED CIRCULATION FOR AT LEAST THREE
DAYS.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      22/1500Z 19.1N  54.3W    35 KT
 12HR VT     23/0000Z 19.8N  54.9W    30 KT
 24HR VT     23/1200Z 21.6N  55.6W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 36HR VT     24/0000Z 24.0N  56.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     24/1200Z...DISSIPATED/ABSORBED INTO FRONTAL ZONE
 
 
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