Tropical Storm NICHOLAS

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TROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  33
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
ISSUED BY HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
5 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2003
 
THE CENTER OF NICHOLAS CONTINUES TO BE WELL EXPOSED WITH MOST OF THE
CONVECTION CONCENTRATED TO THE EAST.  WHILE AVAILABLE 18Z SATELLITE
LOCATION ESTIMATES ARE ALMOST IDENTICAL...DVORAK INTENSITY DROPPED
SLIGHTLY SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 40 KTS WITH A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1005 MB.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 300/08.  WE EXPECT NICHOLAS TO
BEGIN ITS CURVE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE MID-ATLANTIC UPPER
RIDGE AND EVENTUALLY ACCELERATE AS IT BECOMES INFLUENCED BY THE
TROF MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.  THERE HAS
BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE FROM THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE AND THUS THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS AGAIN A CONSENSUS.  EXPECT
THE WIND FIELD TO GRADUALLY EXPAND AFTER 24 HRS AS THE TRANSITION
TO A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL GALE BEGINS.
 
FORECASTER MAUSSER
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      21/2100Z 18.7N  52.3W    40 KT
 12HR VT     22/0600Z 19.5N  53.3W    40 KT
 24HR VT     22/1800Z 21.1N  54.0W    40 KT
 36HR VT     23/0600Z 23.4N  54.4W    40 KT
 48HR VT     23/1800Z 25.6N  54.4W    35 KT
 72HR VT     24/1800Z 32.0N  54.0W    35 KT
 96HR VT     25/1800Z 44.0N  53.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     26/1800Z...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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