Tropical Storm NICHOLAS

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TROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2003

ALTHOUGH NICHOLAS IS SUPPOSED TO BE WEAKENING...SATELLITE IMAGERY
SUGGESTS THAT IT HAS MAINTAINED AT LEAST MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM 
STRENGTH...AND MAY HAVE EVEN RE-STRENGTHENED SLIGHTLY.  DEEP
CONVECTION HAS REDEVELOPED OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
CIRCULATION AND HAS COME BACK NEAR OR OVER THE CENTER.  THIS IS
LIKELY A TEMPORARY EVENT...SINCE A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN WESTERLY
VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST OVER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE SAME
AS THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  NICHOLAS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
ABSORBED BY A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE NEAR THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

NICHOLAS' MOTION IS ABOUT THE SAME AS EARLIER TODAY...290/6.  THE
TRACK FORECAST AND REASONING ARE ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED AS WELL. 
NICHOLAS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THEN TURN
NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A LARGE TROUGH MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES.  THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS JUST SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST
OF THE LATEST GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      21/0300Z 18.4N  49.9W    35 KT
 12HR VT     21/1200Z 18.8N  50.7W    35 KT
 24HR VT     22/0000Z 19.6N  51.8W    30 KT
 36HR VT     22/1200Z 20.7N  52.7W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 48HR VT     23/0000Z 22.2N  53.3W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     24/0000Z 25.0N  54.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     25/0000Z 29.0N  53.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     26/0000Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW 
 
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