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Tropical Storm NICHOLAS

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TROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2003
 
NICHOLAS IS STILL PRODUCING INTERMITTENT CONVECTION...PROBABLY
ENOUGH TO KEEP THE CIRCULATION AT TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. WESTERLY
SHEAR CONTINUES...AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO DIMINISH...SO CONTINUED
WEAKENING IS FORECAST UNTIL THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES OR BECOMES
ABSORBED INTO A FRONTAL ZONE.  ALTHOUGH NOT REFLECTED IN THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT BAROCLINIC FORCING COULD
LEAD TO SOME NON-TROPICAL REGENERATION PRIOR TO ABSORPTION LATE IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/6. NICHOLAS IS CURRENTLY MOVING WITH THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON A SLOW
NORTHWESTERLY TRACK AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
HIGH OVER THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC...WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
NORTH IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT MAJOR TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE OFF
NORTH AMERICA INTO THE ATLANTIC IN ABOUT 48-60 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS JUST SLIGHTLY LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS NEAR
THE GFS/GFDL/UKMET/NOGAPS CONSENSUS.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      20/2100Z 18.2N  49.3W    35 KT
 12HR VT     21/0600Z 18.5N  50.2W    35 KT
 24HR VT     21/1800Z 19.0N  51.1W    30 KT
 36HR VT     22/0600Z 19.9N  52.1W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 48HR VT     22/1800Z 21.0N  53.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     23/1800Z 24.0N  54.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     24/1800Z 28.0N  54.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     25/1800Z...DISSIPATED/ABSORBED INTO FRONTAL ZONE
 
 
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