ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 27 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2003 IT IS ASSUMED THAT THE STORM HAS REMAINED ABOUT STATIONARY OVERNIGHT UNDER WEAK STEERING CURRENTS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT A NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTHWARD MOTION FOR 120 HOURS AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WITH ONLY MODEST ACCELERATION. THE NOGAPS MODEL IS SOMEWHAT FASTER THAN THE OTHERS BRINGING THE FORWARD SPEED TO ABOUT 15 KNOTS AFTER 72 HOURS AS A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC IS REINFORCED BY ANOTHER SHORT WAVE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND LEANS TOWARD THE SLOWER GUIDANCE. ABOUT 25 KNOTS OF WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR CONTINUES TO AFFECT NICHOLAS...AND THE LOW LEVEL CENTER APPEARS TO BE MOSTLY EXPOSED TO THE WEST OF THE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT CONSTITUTES THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE DECREASED A LITTLE BUT STILL SUPPORT A 45-KNOT INITIAL WIND SPEED. THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS SLOW WEAKENING AS THE VERTICAL SHEAR INCREASES TO 30 KNOTS AFTER 48 HOURS AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS GUIDANCE. FORECASTER LAWRENCE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/0900Z 17.8N 47.6W 45 KT 12HR VT 20/1800Z 18.0N 47.9W 45 KT 24HR VT 21/0600Z 18.5N 48.9W 45 KT 36HR VT 21/1800Z 19.4N 49.9W 40 KT 48HR VT 22/0600Z 20.4N 50.9W 40 KT 72HR VT 23/0600Z 22.0N 51.9W 35 KT 96HR VT 24/0600Z 25.0N 52.5W 30 KT 120HR VT 25/0600Z 29.0N 53.0W 25 KT NNNN
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