ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 26 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2003 SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KTS FROM TAFB AND AND 45 KTS FROM AIR FORCE GLOBAL AND SAB. SINCE THE LOCATION OF THE CENTER RELATIVE TO THE DEEP CONVECTION IS CRITICAL IN DETERMINING THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE AND THE CENTER STILL APPEARS TO BE EXPOSED AND TO THE WEST OF THE CONVECTION...AS SEEN ON THE LATEST MICROWAVE PASS. THE INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 45 KTS. THE RELENTLESS SHEAR CONTINUES...AND IF NICHOLAS MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AS FORECAST... DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS STRONG AND INCREASING SHEAR IN STORE FOR IT. THUS WEAKENING IS FORECAST. STEERING CURRENTS REMAIN WEAK...AND THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE APPARENT MOTION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A MOTION BETWEEN NORTHWEST AND NORTH OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH VARIATIONS IN FORWARD SPEED. THE SYNOPTIC REASONING REMAINS THE SAME. NICHOLAS IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY THROUGH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND BECOME INFLUENCED BY A MORE NORTHWARD STEERING FLOW TO THE EAST OF A LARGE MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EXTREME WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK BUT SLOWER IN THE EARLY FORECAST PERIODS. FORECASTER JARVINEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/0300Z 17.7N 47.5W 45 KT 12HR VT 20/1200Z 17.9N 47.5W 45 KT 24HR VT 21/0000Z 18.4N 48.4W 45 KT 36HR VT 21/1200Z 19.3N 49.2W 45 KT 48HR VT 22/0000Z 20.2N 50.0W 40 KT 72HR VT 23/0000Z 22.0N 51.4W 40 KT 96HR VT 24/0000Z 24.4N 52.5W 35 KT 120HR VT 25/0000Z 29.0N 52.0W 35 KT NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:50:00 UTC