ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 24 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2003 VISIBLE SATELLITE AND RECENT SSM/I AND TRMM IMAGES SHOW THAT THE CENTER IS LOCATED A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF PREVIOUS ESTIMATES...NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DENSE OVERCAST. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED TO 50 KT...WHICH IS A COMPROMISE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 55 KT FROM TAFB AND AFWA...AND 45 KT FROM SAB. ALTHOUGH THE STORM IS A LITTLE STRONGER AT THIS TIME...ALL INDICATIONS ARE FOR INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR IN THE ENVIRONMENT. THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO CALL FOR WEAKENING. INDEED..IN 72-96 HOURS THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR 40 KT...AND IF THIS VERIFIES NICHOLAS MAY NOT BE WITH US BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE STORM REMAINS EMBEDDED IN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS. EVEN WITH THE EASTWARD SHIFT IN LOCATION...MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...PRESUMABLY DUE TO MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. FOR SOME REASON...THE 06Z GFDL RUN HAS SHIFTED MORE TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. HOWEVER ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A LARGE MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH OVER THE EXTREME WESTERN ATLANTIC IN SEVERAL DAYS...WHICH WOULD MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR NICHOLAS TO MAKE IT VERY FAR TO THE WEST IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ASIDE FROM ADJUSTING THE EARLY PART OF THE FORECAST TRACK TO ACCOUNT FOR THE EASTWARD RELOCATION...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS ROUGHLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/1500Z 17.8N 47.7W 50 KT 12HR VT 20/0000Z 18.2N 47.8W 50 KT 24HR VT 20/1200Z 18.8N 48.5W 45 KT 36HR VT 21/0000Z 19.4N 49.2W 40 KT 48HR VT 21/1200Z 20.2N 50.0W 35 KT 72HR VT 22/1200Z 22.5N 52.0W 30 KT 96HR VT 23/1200Z 25.5N 52.5W 30 KT 120HR VT 24/1200Z 28.5N 52.5W 25 KT NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:50:00 UTC