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Tropical Storm NICHOLAS

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TROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2003
 
VISIBLE SATELLITE AND RECENT SSM/I AND TRMM IMAGES SHOW THAT THE
CENTER IS LOCATED A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF PREVIOUS ESTIMATES...NEAR
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DENSE OVERCAST.  THE CURRENT INTENSITY
IS ADJUSTED TO 50 KT...WHICH IS A COMPROMISE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES OF
55 KT FROM TAFB AND AFWA...AND 45 KT FROM SAB.  ALTHOUGH THE STORM
IS A LITTLE STRONGER AT THIS TIME...ALL INDICATIONS ARE FOR
INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR IN THE ENVIRONMENT.  THEREFORE THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO CALL FOR WEAKENING.  INDEED..IN
72-96 HOURS THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR 40 KT...AND IF THIS
VERIFIES NICHOLAS MAY NOT BE WITH US BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

THE STORM REMAINS EMBEDDED IN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS.  EVEN WITH THE
EASTWARD SHIFT IN LOCATION...MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO SHOW A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...PRESUMABLY DUE TO MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE.  FOR SOME REASON...THE 06Z GFDL RUN HAS SHIFTED
MORE TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.  HOWEVER ALL OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW A LARGE MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH OVER THE EXTREME
WESTERN ATLANTIC IN SEVERAL DAYS...WHICH WOULD MAKE IT DIFFICULT
FOR NICHOLAS TO MAKE IT VERY FAR TO THE WEST IN THE LATTER PART OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.  ASIDE FROM ADJUSTING THE EARLY PART OF THE
FORECAST TRACK TO ACCOUNT FOR THE EASTWARD RELOCATION...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS ROUGHLY IN
THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      19/1500Z 17.8N  47.7W    50 KT
 12HR VT     20/0000Z 18.2N  47.8W    50 KT
 24HR VT     20/1200Z 18.8N  48.5W    45 KT
 36HR VT     21/0000Z 19.4N  49.2W    40 KT
 48HR VT     21/1200Z 20.2N  50.0W    35 KT
 72HR VT     22/1200Z 22.5N  52.0W    30 KT
 96HR VT     23/1200Z 25.5N  52.5W    30 KT
120HR VT     24/1200Z 28.5N  52.5W    25 KT 
 
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