ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2003 NICHOLAS CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A COLD CDO AGAINST STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE EVEN INCREASED A LITTLE WITH 3.0/3.5/3.5 T NUMBERS FROM SAB/TAFB/KGWCT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 45 KNOTS. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 340/02. THIS IS BASED MAINLY ON CONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AS THERE IS NOT MUCH NEW INFORMATION ABOUT THE LOCATION OF THE CENTER WHICH LOOKED POORLY DEFINED ON A 0150UTC TRMM PASS. THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE MOVED INTO FAIR AGREEMENT ABOUT A MOSTLY NORTHWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT 120 HOURS AS NICHOLAS MOVES AROUND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND BECOMES STEERED BY SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING FROM NORTH AMERICA TO THE ATLANTIC. THE GFS AND UKMET ARE SLOW...ABOUT 5 KNOTS...WHILE THE GFDL AND NOGAPS ACCELERATE THE FORWARD SPEED TO ABOUT 20 KNOTS BY 120 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE SLOWER SOLUTION AND IS NOT CHANGED MUCH FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE INTENSITY FORECAST...FOLLOWING THE SHIPS MODEL...IS FOR GRADUAL WEAKENING AS VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO FLUCTUATE AT 20 TO 30 KNOTS FOR 48 HOURS AND INCREASE TO OVER 30 KNOTS AFTER 72 HOURS. FORECASTER LAWRENCE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/0900Z 17.5N 48.2W 45 KT 12HR VT 19/1800Z 17.8N 48.5W 45 KT 24HR VT 20/0600Z 18.2N 49.0W 40 KT 36HR VT 20/1800Z 18.9N 49.6W 35 KT 48HR VT 21/0600Z 19.8N 50.2W 35 KT 72HR VT 22/0600Z 21.5N 51.5W 30 KT 96HR VT 23/0600Z 24.5N 52.5W 30 KT 120HR VT 24/0600Z 28.0N 52.5W 25 KT NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:50:00 UTC