ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2003 NICHOLAS CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE UNDER THE RELENTLES SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. T-NUMBERS CONTINUE TO DECREASE AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 45 KTS. THE SYSTEM SEEMS TO HAVE BEEN WANDERING FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AND HAS DRIFTED BACK TOWARD THE WEST IN THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE MOTION FOR THE PAST 12 TO 18 HOURS HAS BEEN 340/2...A SLOW DRIFT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST...AND THAT WILL BE THE INITIAL MOTION. INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE APPROACH OF A PARTICULARLY STRONG PULSE OF MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. THIS WILL SEVERELY DISRUPT THE UPPER-LEVEL STRUCTURE AND WILL PROBABLY BEGIN THE DEMISE OF THE SYSTEM. AS THE UPPER-LEVEL IS SHEARED AWAY THE STEERING WILL BE CONTROLLED MORE BY THE MID- TO LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE BAM SHALLOW AND MEDIUM SUGGEST A MORE WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST TRACK AND ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS WHICH WANTS TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW. MOST OF THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS INITIALLY MOVE THE SYSTEM NORTH-NORTHWEST. THE GFDL...NOGAPS AND UKMET ALSO WANT TO ACCELERATE THE SYSTEM TOWARD THE NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHEAST IN THE 72 TO 96 HOUR TIME FRAME IN RESPONSE TO A SHORT WAVE IN THE WESTERLIES. THESE MODELS ARE ASSUMING A DEEP-CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WHICH...IN ALL LIKELYHOOD...WILL NOT EXIST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT A SLOWER INITIAL MOTION AND SLOWER SPEEDS IN THE EARLY FORECAST POSITIONS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS GUIDANCE WHICH FORECASTS HIGH SHEAR VALUES OVER THE SYSTEM THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. FORECASTER JARVINEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/0300Z 17.3N 48.2W 45 KT 12HR VT 19/1200Z 17.4N 48.4W 40 KT 24HR VT 20/0000Z 17.9N 48.8W 35 KT 36HR VT 20/1200Z 18.5N 49.3W 35 KT 48HR VT 21/0000Z 19.4N 49.9W 30 KT 72HR VT 22/0000Z 21.1N 51.4W 30 KT 96HR VT 23/0000Z 23.1N 52.7W 30 KT 120HR VT 24/0000Z 25.2N 53.6W 25 KT NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:50:00 UTC