ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2003 NICHOLAS CONTINUES TO BE STRONGLY SHEARED FROM THE SOUTHWEST...BUT ALSO IS MAINTAINING A COLD CDO AND BANDING AS WELL AS GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT. DVORAK T NUMBERS HAVE DECREASED A LITTLE...BUT STILL SUPPORT AN INITIAL WIND SPEED OF 55 KT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FOR SLOW WEAKENING UNDER CONTINUED STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR FOLLOWING THE SHIPS MODEL. IN CONTRAST...THE GFDL MODEL KEEPS FORECASTING NICHOLAS TO A HURRICANE. IT HARD TO LOCATE THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THE LATEST MICROWAVE IMAGES SHOW A POORLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL CLOUD PATTERN. THE STORM IS LOCATED BY ASSUMING THAT THE CENTER IS NEAR THE SOUTHWEST EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THIS GIVES AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 340/05. THE GFS MODEL KEEPS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF NICHOLAS AND SHOWS A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION FOR 120 HOURS. THE ECMWF MODEL SHOWS A SIMILAR BEHAVIOR. THE GFDL...NOGAPS AND UKMET MODELS SHOW A SLOW MOSTLY NORTHWARD MOTION WITH THE RIDGE SHIFTING EASTWARD AS VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS GRADUALLY PUSH EASTWARD FROM NORTH AMERICA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A COMPROMISE OF THE WESTWARD AND NORTHWARD SCENARIOS MOVING THE STORM SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD FOR 120 HOURS. FORECASTER LAWRENCE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/0900Z 17.3N 48.5W 55 KT 12HR VT 18/1800Z 17.9N 48.7W 55 KT 24HR VT 19/0600Z 18.4N 49.3W 55 KT 36HR VT 19/1800Z 19.0N 49.8W 50 KT 48HR VT 20/0600Z 19.6N 50.4W 50 KT 72HR VT 21/0600Z 20.6N 51.6W 45 KT 96HR VT 22/0600Z 21.5N 53.0W 40 KT 120HR VT 23/0600Z 22.5N 54.5W 35 KT NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:50:00 UTC