ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2003 MICROWAVE AND QUIKSCAT AMBIGUITIES INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF NICHOLAS REMAINS NEAR THE SOUTHWEST EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. CURRENT DVORAK T-NUMBER WIND EQUIVALENTS FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA ARE 65...55...AND 55 KT...RESPECTIVELY. THE 22Z QUIKSCAT PASS DID NOT CONTAIN ANYTHING TO SUGGEST THAT NICHOLAS HAS STRENGTHENED...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 55 KT. ALTHOUGH THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW PATTERN APPEARS IMPRESSIVE...SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO UNDERCUT THIS OUTFLOW. WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 340/5...IT APPEARS THAT NICHOLAS HAS SLOWED AND TURNED A BIT TO THE RIGHT. NICHOLAS REMAINS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT MAY ALREADY BE STARTING TO BLOCK ITS MOTION. EMBEDDED WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLIES AND LOW-LEVEL EASTERLIES...NICHOLAS WILL MOVE MORE NORTHWARD WHEN IT CAN STAY WELL-CONNECTED VERTICALLY...AND MORE WESTWARD WHEN IT SHEARS. THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SHEAR WILL NOT DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND THEN INCREASE NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE...WITH THE GFS TAKING A VERY WEAK SYSTEM SHARPLY WESTWARD AND THE GFDL TAKING A HURRICANE TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. THE UKMET...WHICH HAS OUTPERFORMED THE OTHER MODELS WITH NICHOLAS...IS IN BETWEEN BUT GENERALLY FAVORS THE WEAK AND WEST OPTION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE UKMET AND THE SHALLOW BAM...AND CALLS FOR A TRACK THAT GRADUALLY TURNS TO THE LEFT AS THE CYCLONE WEAKENS. ALTHOUGH NOT INDICATED BELOW...NICHOLAS COULD STILL BECOME A HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO IF THE SHEAR WERE TO UNEXPECTEDLY DIMINISH. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/0300Z 16.7N 48.5W 55 KT 12HR VT 18/1200Z 17.4N 48.7W 55 KT 24HR VT 19/0000Z 18.2N 49.3W 55 KT 36HR VT 19/1200Z 18.8N 49.8W 55 KT 48HR VT 20/0000Z 19.5N 50.5W 50 KT 72HR VT 21/0000Z 20.5N 52.0W 45 KT 96HR VT 22/0000Z 21.0N 53.5W 40 KT 120HR VT 23/0000Z 21.5N 55.5W 35 KT NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:50:00 UTC