ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2003 SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IMPINGING ON THE STORM...YET A COLD CDO FEATURE PERSISTS AND...ALONG WITH SOME BANDING...RESULTS IN DVORAK WIND SPEED ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS FROM ALL AGENCIES. THIS IS NO CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE SHIPS FORECASTS GRADUAL WEAKENING FRO 120 HOURS WITH LOTS OF VERTICAL SHEAR WEAKENING SOME AFTER 48 HOURS. ONLY THE GFDL MODEL SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF REACHING 65 KNOTS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BACKS OFF 5 KNOTS FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AFTER 12 HOURS TO AGREE MORE WITH THE SHIPS MODEL. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS STILL IMPOSSIBLE TO LOCATE ON INFRARED IMAGERY. EARLIER ANALYSES PLACED THE LOW LEVEL CENTER NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE CURRENT POSITION ESTIMATE IS BASED ON THE SAME PROCEDURE AND GIVES AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 310/07. THE GUIDANCE HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH. THE GFS AND UKMET CONTINUE TO SHOW A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR 120 HOURS WHILE THE GFDL AND NOGAPS SHOW A SLOW MOSTLY NORTHWARD MOTION. WHICH FORECAST IS CORRECT DEPENDS ON THE INTENSITY WITH A WEAKER CYCLONE HAVING MORE WESTWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION LIKE THE GFS AND UKMET MODELS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TO GET CLOSER TO A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS BUT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST STILL LEANS TOWARD THE WEAKER CYCLONE SCENARIO. WIND SPEED RADII HAVE BEEN INCREASED BASED ON A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS. FORECASTER LAWRENCE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/0900Z 15.0N 48.0W 55 KT 12HR VT 17/1800Z 15.9N 48.7W 55 KT 24HR VT 18/0600Z 16.8N 49.2W 55 KT 36HR VT 18/1800Z 17.6N 49.9W 60 KT 48HR VT 19/0600Z 18.4N 50.6W 60 KT 72HR VT 20/0600Z 19.3N 51.5W 55 KT 96HR VT 21/0600Z 20.5N 52.5W 50 KT 120HR VT 22/0600Z 21.5N 53.5W 45 KT NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:50:00 UTC