ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT WED OCT 15 2003 IF ANYTHING...NICHOLAS LOOKS A LITTLE LESS ORGANIZED THIS EVENING... WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION LOOKING A LITTLE STRUNG OUT TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. MICROWAVE PASSES STILL SHOW AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION. DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED FROM 6 HOURS AGO AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS UNCHANGED AS WELL. RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES SUGGEST THAT THE CURRENT HEADING MAY BE STARTING TO BEND A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT. A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE LIES TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OF NICHOLAS...BUT THIS RIDGE MAY SOON BE ERODED BY A MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE NORTHEAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW A GENERALLY SLOW AND NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WITH SUCH WEAK ENVIRONMENTAL STEERING CURRENTS IN A LARGELY DATA-VOID REGION...IT IS NOT SURPRISING THAT THERE IS A LOT OF SCATTER IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE. THE SIMPLE-PHYSICS MODELS...ALONG WITH THE UKMET...CONTINUE TO FORECAST A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY TRACK...WHILE THE GFS...GFDL...AND NOGAPS FORECAST A MOSTLY NORTHWARD TRACK. SURPRISINGLY...THE SIMPLER MODELS HAVE BEEN DOING THE BETTER JOB SO FAR...BUT WITH A POSSIBLE RIGHTWARD BEND IN THE TRACK BEGINNING THIS MAY BE ABOUT TO CHANGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ESSENTIALLY SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE UKMET AND GFS/GFDL SOLUTIONS AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK. THERE IS A LITTLE LESS SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR NOW THAN THERE WAS 24 HOURS AGO...AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. NICHOLAS SHOULD THEREFORE HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME STRENGTHENING. INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR AFTER 72 HR SHOULD LIMIT INTENSIFICATION. THE SHIPS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING DOWNWARD OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS AND NOW CALLS FOR LITTLE INTENSIFICATION. THE GFDL STILL MAKES NICHOLAS A HURRICANE BUT IT TOO IS TRENDING DOWNWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSER TO THE GFDL SOLUTION. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/0300Z 12.9N 45.2W 45 KT 12HR VT 16/1200Z 13.8N 45.9W 50 KT 24HR VT 17/0000Z 14.9N 46.8W 55 KT 36HR VT 17/1200Z 16.0N 47.3W 60 KT 48HR VT 18/0000Z 17.0N 48.0W 65 KT 72HR VT 19/0000Z 18.0N 49.0W 65 KT 96HR VT 20/0000Z 19.0N 50.0W 65 KT 120HR VT 21/0000Z 20.5N 51.0W 65 KT NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:50:00 UTC