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Tropical Depression NINETEEN

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2003

BASED ON SATELLITE ESTIMATES...THE DEPRESSION HAS NOT STRENGTHENED. 
THE CLOUD PATTERN LACKS BANDING FEATURES...AND THE LOW-CLOUD
CIRCULATION IS STILL RATHER POORLY ORGANIZED.  THERE IS A LOW-LEVEL
VORTEX OR VORTMAX JUST WEST OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER LOCATION...
WHICH APPEARS TO BE ROTATING AROUND THE BROADER CIRCULATION. 
DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE SYSTEM IN A SHEARING ENVIRONMENT OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  THE SHIPS MODEL AND THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST SHOW SLOW STRENGTHENING...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST
IS NOT HIGH.

MY BEST GUESS FOR INITIAL MOTION IS 290/8.  THERE IS A VERY WEAK
LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION...AND MOST OF THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
AND NORTH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
MODEL'S PREDICTED WEAKNESS IN THE 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE SUBTROPICAL
EAST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED
SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT IS TO THE LEFT OF
THE GUNS AND GUNA MODEL CONSENSUS TRACKS.

NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE GLOBAL MODELS BUILD THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE VICINITY OF 50W.  THIS RIDGE COULD BLOCK
THE NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE BY THAT TIME.

FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      14/1500Z 10.8N  41.4W    30 KT
 12HR VT     15/0000Z 11.3N  42.5W    35 KT
 24HR VT     15/1200Z 11.9N  43.6W    40 KT
 36HR VT     16/0000Z 12.6N  44.3W    45 KT
 48HR VT     16/1200Z 13.3N  44.8W    50 KT
 72HR VT     17/1200Z 15.0N  45.5W    55 KT
 96HR VT     18/1200Z 16.5N  46.0W    65 KT
120HR VT     19/1200Z 18.5N  46.0W    65 KT
 
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