ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2003 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVERNIGHT. WHILE CONVECTIVE TOPS HAVE WARMED...THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED WITH THE CONVECTION HAVING DEVELOPED CLOSER AND POSSIBLY OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING MAINTAINED AT 30 KT BASED ON A DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.0/30 KT FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES. THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION ESTIMATE OF 285/08 IS BASED ON CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS 6-HR MOTION AND FORECAST TRACK. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS SPREAD ALL OVER THE COMPASS IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE NOGAPS MODEL IS THE EASTERNMOST OF THE MODELS AND TAKES THE DEPRESSION ALMOST DUE NORTH AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD FROM ITS CURRENT POSITON...WHICH SEEMS HIGHLY UNLIKELY AND WAS THEREFORE IGNORED. THE GFS MODEL DEVELOPS WHAT APPEARS TO BE A BOGUS TROPICAL STORM IN 36-48 HOURS TO THE EAST OF TD-19...WHICH ACTS TO PULL THE DEPRESSION NORTHEASTWARD BY 48 HOURS...AND THIS UNLIKELY SCENARIO WAS ALSO DISCOUNTED. THE REMAINING MODEL GUIDANCE CONSISTS OF THE UKMET AND GFDL MODELS...WHICH TAKE TD-19 NORTHWESTWARD FROM ITS CURRENT POSTION FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS AND THEN TURN IT SLOWLY NORTHWARD AFTER THAT. THE THREE BAM MODELS AND THE LBAR MODEL TAKE TD-19 BASICALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THE FUTURE TRACK OF TD-19 DEPENDS HEAVILY ON WHAT EFFECT THE DIGGING TROUGH TO THE NORTH WILL HAVE ON THE NARROW AND WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN STEERING THE DEPRESSION WESTWARD. THE TROUGH AXIS IS ALREADY ALONG THE SAME LONGITUDE AS TD-19 AND IT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD...PERHAPS BYPASSING THE CYCLONE. AS SUCH... THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE GFS...GFDL...AND THE BAM MODELS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE CANADIAN MODEL MAINTAINS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AND HAS TD-19 NEAR THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IN 120 HOURS. THIS IS CERTAINLY A VIABLE FORECAST POSSIBILITY IF THE CYCLONE DOES NOT MOVED NORTHWARD BY 48 HOURS. SOME UPPER-LEVEL SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ON THE DEPRESSION THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS...SO ONLY MODEST STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST. THIS IS BELOW THE SHIPS MODEL AND WELL BELOW THE GFDL MODEL FORECASTS...WHICH BRING THE CYCLONE UP TO 72 KT IN 72 HOURS AND 95 KT IN 60 HOURS...RESPECTIVELY. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/0900Z 10.1N 40.5W 30 KT 12HR VT 14/1800Z 10.4N 41.6W 35 KT 24HR VT 15/0600Z 10.9N 43.0W 40 KT 36HR VT 15/1800Z 11.4N 44.1W 45 KT 48HR VT 16/0600Z 12.0N 45.0W 50 KT 72HR VT 17/0600Z 13.0N 45.7W 55 KT 96HR VT 18/0600Z 15.0N 46.0W 65 KT 120HR VT 19/0600Z 17.5N 46.0W 65 KT NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:50:00 UTC