ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION MINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT MON OCT 13 2003 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A POORLY-ORGANIZED CIRCULATION... AT BEST. DEEP CONVECTION SHOWS A MORE LINEAR...RATHER THAN CURVED BAND...ORGANIZATION...RESEMBLING A FRONTAL SYSTEM. A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM 10Z SHOWED MAXIMUM WINDS OF ONLY 25 KT IN AN OPEN TROUGH... HOWEVER THE SCATTEROMETER CAN HAVE DIFFICULTY IN CAPTURING SUCH A WEAK AND SMALL CIRCULATION. THE ADVISORY POSITION IS BASED ON THE LOCATION OF A VERY SMALL LOW-CLOUD SWIRL...DISPLACED WELL TO THE WEST OF THE HEAVY SHOWER ACTIVITY. AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS ARE SCHEDULED TO MAKE AN 18Z CENTER FIX...BUT GIVEN THE CURRENT APPEARANCE OF MINDY THEY MAY HAVE DIFFICULTY IN CLOSING OFF THE CIRCULATION. BECAUSE THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME SO ILL-DEFINED...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST NOW SHOWS DISSIPATION WITHIN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE MOVEMENT REMAINS THE SAME AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. MINDY IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO BE STEERED BY THE WEAK TO MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH. PRIOR TO THE PREDICTED DISSIPATION...THE CURRENT TPC/NHC TRACK FORECAST IS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THAT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. FORECASTER PASCH/MAINELLI FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 13/1500Z 25.8N 68.9W 25 KT 12HR VT 14/0000Z 26.0N 67.5W 25 KT 24HR VT 14/1200Z 26.5N 65.0W 20 KT...DISSIPATING 36HR VT 15/0000Z 27.2N 62.5W 20 KT...DISSIPATING 48HR VT 15/1200Z...DISSIPATED NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:50:00 UTC