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Tropical Storm MINDY (Text)

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TROPICAL STORM MINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SUN OCT 12 2003
 
THE CENTER OF MINDY HAS BECOME EXPOSED TO THE WEST OF THE DEEPEST
CONVECTION. RECON FOUND A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1007 MB AND MAXIMUM
925 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 38 KT ABOUT 75 NMI NORTHEAST OF THE
CENTER. THIS WOULD USUALLY EQUATE TO SURFACE WINDS OF 29 KT.
HOWEVER...SINCE THE STRONGEST CONVECTION WAS EAST OF THE CENTER AND
THE RECON FLIGHT LEGS WERE TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST IN
NON-CONVECTIVE AREAS...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT STRONGER WINDS EXIST
EAST OF THE CENTER THAT WERE NOT SAMPLED. DVORAK SATELLITE
INTENSITY NUMBERS ARE A CONSENSUS T2.5/35 KT...SO THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BEING MAINTAINED AT 35 KT...BUT JUST BARELY.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 025/06. MINDY ACTUALLY MADE A SHARP
JOG TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS BASED ON THE RECON
POSITIONS...BUT NIGHTTIME VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT
MINDY MAY HAVE FINALLY STARTED TO ROUND THE SHARP EAST-WEST
ORIENTED MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS LOCATED ALONG 25N LATITUDE. AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TRAILING TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA IS
FORECAST BY ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS TO CONTINUE TO MOVING EASTWARD
AND GRADUALLY ACCELERATE MINDY TO THE NORTHEAST BEFORE CAPTURING
THE CYCLONE IN 36-48 HOURS. AFTER MINDY IS ABSORBED INTO THE
MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
EXTRATROPICAL AND TURN MORE EASTWARD AFTER 72 HOURS...AND POSSIBLY
EVEN MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD AROUND THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL RIDGE
BY 120 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SLOWER AND TO THE
RIGHT/SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE
NOGAPS...GFS...AND CANADIAN MODELS.

MINDY IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING SOME SIGNIFICANT SOUTHWESTERLY
UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR. BY 24 HOURS...THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE
SOME AS THE CYCLONE BEGINS TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD. THIS MAY
ALLOW FOR SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR BEFORE MINDY GETS
ABSORBED BY THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH. ALL OF THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT
ANY BAROCLINIC EFFECTS WILL BE MINIMAL...SO MINDY IS NOT EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP INTO A "POLAR-BOMB". HOWEVER...THE MODELS ALL AGREE THAT
MINDY WILL STILL BE VERTICALLY ALIGNED BY 36-48 HOURS...WHICH MAY
ALLOW FOR CONVECTION TO REMAIN CONCENTRATED AROUND THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER...WHICH WOULD FAVOR SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      12/0900Z 24.3N  72.3W    35 KT
 12HR VT     12/1800Z 25.9N  71.4W    35 KT
 24HR VT     13/0600Z 28.0N  68.9W    40 KT
 36HR VT     13/1800Z 30.5N  64.9W    40 KT
 48HR VT     14/0600Z 32.3N  61.0W    40 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     15/0600Z 35.0N  54.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     16/0600Z 37.5N  46.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     17/0600Z 37.5N  40.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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