ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM MINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT SAT OCT 11 2003 THE CENTER OF MINDY DISAPPEARED INTO A STRONG CONVECTIVE BURST JUST BEFORE SUNSET. SINCE THEN...THE CONVECTION HAS BEEN BOTH STRONG AND PERSISTENT...AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED TO 45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 35 KT FROM AFWA. HOWEVER...A 23Z REPORT FROM SHIP WZJD AND LOW-CLOUD LINES IN SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST THE CENTER IS AT LEAST PARTLY EXPOSED TO THE WEST OF THE CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY THUS REMAINS 35 KT. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS ENROUTE TO PROVIDE MORE INFORMATION ON THE EXACT LOCATION AND INTENSITY OF MINDY. THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 340/10. MINDY IS WEST OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND IS APPROACHING DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS SHOULD TURN THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR NORTHEAST IN 24 HR. ALL GUIDANCE AGREES ON THE TURN...WITH THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS BEING HOW MUCH ACCELERATION AFTER RECURVATURE. THE GFS AND NOGAPS ARE THE SLOWEST...HAVING THE CYCLONE MISS A CONNECTION WITH A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH PASSING TO THE NORTH...WHILE THE UKMET IS MUCH FASTER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE UKMET BUT WITH A SOMEWHAT SLOWER FORWARD SPEED. THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. MINDY IS CURRENTLY IN A MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...AND THERE ARE INDICATIONS IN CIRRUS CLOUD MOTIONS SOUTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE THAT STRONGER FLOW IS APPROACHING. THUS...EVEN AFTER MINDY STARTS RUNNING WITH THAT FLOW...THE SHEAR COULD INCREASE AND WEAKEN THE CYCLONE. ON THE OTHER HAND...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST COULD CAUSE FORCING...WHICH COULD COMPENSATE FOR THE SHEAR. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE THAT MINDY COULD BECOME EXTRATROPICAL...ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS ARE LESS BULLISH ON THAT OPTION THAN PREVIOUSLY. GIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINIES...THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CONTINUE WITH A COMPROMISE...CALLING FOR SLIGHT STRENGTHENING AND EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. HOWEVER...THIS IS A LOW-CONFIDENCE FORECAST. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/0300Z 24.1N 72.0W 35 KT 12HR VT 12/1200Z 25.6N 71.9W 40 KT 24HR VT 13/0000Z 27.5N 70.0W 40 KT 36HR VT 13/1200Z 30.3N 66.5W 40 KT 48HR VT 14/0000Z 33.5N 62.0W 40 KT 72HR VT 15/0000Z 38.0N 54.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 16/0000Z 41.5N 45.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 17/0000Z 43.0N 35.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:50:00 UTC