Tropical Storm MINDY

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TROPICAL STORM MINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT OCT 11 2003

THE CENTER OF MINDY DISAPPEARED INTO A STRONG CONVECTIVE BURST JUST
BEFORE SUNSET.  SINCE THEN...THE CONVECTION HAS BEEN BOTH STRONG
AND PERSISTENT...AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED
TO 45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 35 KT FROM AFWA.  HOWEVER...A 23Z
REPORT FROM SHIP WZJD AND LOW-CLOUD LINES IN SATELLITE IMAGERY
SUGGEST THE CENTER IS AT LEAST PARTLY EXPOSED TO THE WEST OF THE
CONVECTION.   THE INITIAL INTENSITY THUS REMAINS 35 KT.  AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS ENROUTE TO PROVIDE MORE
INFORMATION ON THE EXACT LOCATION AND INTENSITY OF MINDY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 340/10.   MINDY IS WEST
OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND IS APPROACHING
DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.  THIS SHOULD TURN THE CYCLONE TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR NORTHEAST IN 24 HR.  ALL GUIDANCE AGREES ON
THE TURN...WITH THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS BEING HOW
MUCH ACCELERATION AFTER RECURVATURE.  THE GFS AND NOGAPS ARE THE
SLOWEST...HAVING THE CYCLONE MISS A CONNECTION WITH A DEEP-LAYER
TROUGH PASSING TO THE NORTH...WHILE THE UKMET IS MUCH FASTER.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE UKMET BUT WITH A SOMEWHAT SLOWER
FORWARD SPEED.
 
THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.  MINDY IS CURRENTLY
IN A MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...AND THERE ARE
INDICATIONS IN CIRRUS CLOUD MOTIONS SOUTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE THAT
STRONGER FLOW IS APPROACHING.  THUS...EVEN AFTER MINDY STARTS
RUNNING WITH THAT FLOW...THE SHEAR COULD INCREASE AND WEAKEN THE
CYCLONE.  ON THE OTHER HAND...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING
OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST COULD CAUSE FORCING...WHICH COULD
COMPENSATE FOR THE SHEAR.  THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE THAT MINDY COULD
BECOME EXTRATROPICAL...ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE
LARGE-SCALE MODELS ARE LESS BULLISH ON THAT OPTION THAN PREVIOUSLY. 
GIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINIES...THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CONTINUE
WITH A COMPROMISE...CALLING FOR SLIGHT STRENGTHENING AND
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.  HOWEVER...THIS IS A LOW-CONFIDENCE
FORECAST.

FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      12/0300Z 24.1N  72.0W    35 KT
 12HR VT     12/1200Z 25.6N  71.9W    40 KT
 24HR VT     13/0000Z 27.5N  70.0W    40 KT
 36HR VT     13/1200Z 30.3N  66.5W    40 KT
 48HR VT     14/0000Z 33.5N  62.0W    40 KT
 72HR VT     15/0000Z 38.0N  54.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     16/0000Z 41.5N  45.5W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     17/0000Z 43.0N  35.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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