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Tropical Storm MINDY

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TROPICAL STORM MINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT OCT 11 2003
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 345/10.  THE TRACK FORECAST SCENARIO
REMAINS THE SAME...WITH AN APPROACHING TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES
FORCING A NORTH TO NORTHEASTWARD MOTION AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  THE TROUGH AND MINDY ARE
FORECAST TO COMBINE BY 72 HOURS AFTER WHICH MINDY IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME EXTRATROPICAL.  THE FORECAST TRACK MOVES THE CENTER NEAR
BERMUDA IN ABOUT 48 HOURS.
 
THE LAST LEGS OF THIS MORNINGS RECONNAISSANCE MISSION RESULTED IN A
MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WIND SPEED OF 36 KNOTS...NOT QUITE ENOUGH TO
GIVE A SURFACE WIND OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE.  BUT SINCE THEN THERE
HAS BEEN A NEW BURST OF CONVECTION JUST NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER AND
THE WIND SPEED ADVISORY INITIAL WIND SPEED IS KEPT AT 35 KNOTS.
THERE IS ABOUT 25 KNOTS OF SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR AFFECTING
MINDY AND THE GUIDANCE SHOWS ONLY A SLIGHT STRENGTHENING OVER THE
NEXT 3 DAYS AS THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO RELAX A LITTLE.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      11/2100Z 23.2N  71.5W    35 KT
 12HR VT     12/0600Z 24.5N  71.8W    40 KT
 24HR VT     12/1800Z 26.5N  70.9W    40 KT
 36HR VT     13/0600Z 28.5N  68.5W    40 KT
 48HR VT     13/1800Z 32.0N  64.0W    40 KT
 72HR VT     14/1800Z 38.0N  56.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     15/1800Z 43.0N  47.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     16/1800Z 45.0N  36.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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