ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM MINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SAT OCT 11 2003 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 320/12. THE TRACK FORECAST SCENARIO REMAINS THE SAME...WITH AN APPROACHING TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES FORCING A NORTH TO NORTHEASTWARD MOTION AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE TROUGH AND MINDY ARE FORECAST TO COMBINE BY 72 HOURS AFTER WHICH MINDY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL. THE FORECAST TRACK MOVES THE CENTER NEAR BERMUDA IN 48 TO 72 HOURS. THE FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS BASED ON THE INITIAL POSITIONING OF THE CENTER. A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT RECENTLY REPORTED HIGHEST WINDS OF 41 KNOTS WELL EAST OF THE CENTER AND NOT MUCH NEAR THE CENTER. WIND REPORTS FROM GRAND TURK INDICATE THAT THE CENTER MOVED VERY CLOSE TO THAT ISLAND BETWEEN 11Z AND 12Z BUT WINDS THERE REMAINED BELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE. THERE IS ABOUT 25 KNOTS OF SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE CENTER WHICH APPEARS ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AS A TIGHT LITTLE CIRCULATION EXPOSED TO THE WEST OF A LARGE CONVECTIVE MASS THAT IS DETERIORATING. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH UNTIL THE EXTRATROPICAL STAGE WHERE MODEST STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT MINDY WILL NOT SURVIVE THE STRONG SHEAR TODAY. FORECASTER LAWRENCE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 11/1500Z 22.2N 71.6W 35 KT 12HR VT 12/0000Z 23.8N 72.5W 35 KT 24HR VT 12/1200Z 26.1N 71.9W 35 KT 36HR VT 13/0000Z 28.0N 70.2W 35 KT 48HR VT 13/1200Z 30.6N 66.8W 40 KT 72HR VT 14/1200Z 37.3N 59.2W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 15/1200Z 43.0N 51.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 16/1200Z 47.5N 42.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL NNNN
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