ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION LARRY DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT MON OCT 06 2003 SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF LARRY IS BECOMING WEAK AND ILL-DEFINED. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS DISSIPATING OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. THERE IS STILL A POSSIBILITY THAT THE SYSTEM COULD REGENERATE...IF ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY CAN MOVE INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. SOME OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGEST REGENERATION...HOWEVER THE LATEST GFDL MODEL RUN DOES NOT...AND THE LATEST GLOBAL MODEL RUNS ARE NOT VERY EMPHATIC ABOUT REDEVELOPMENT EITHER. THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE CYCLONE WILL BE TOO DISRUPTED BY IT PASSAGE OVER THE ISTHMUS FOR REGENERATION TO OCCUR. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER LAND TODAY. EVEN THOUGH LARRY IS DISSIPATING...ITS REMNANTS ARE LIKELY TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO. THEREFORE FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 06/0900Z 17.3N 94.0W 20 KT...INLAND...DISSIPATING 12HR VT 06/1800Z 16.9N 94.1W 20 KT...INLAND...DISSIPATING 24HR VT 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:50:00 UTC