ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM LARRY DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT SAT OCT 04 2003 LARRY DOES NOT LOOK VERY IMPRESSIVE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. BUT SINCE THE LAST AIRCRAFT INDICATED WINDS STILL NEAR 50 KNOTS SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED WILL BE KEPT AT 50 KNOTS. THE CENTER IS NOT FAR FROM LAND AND SHOULD BE INLAND IN 12 HOURS...BY WHICH TIME SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING SHOULD HAVE OCCURRED...IF IT HAS NOT ALREADY DONE SO. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 155/03. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE UNANIMOUS ABOUT MOVING LARRY ACROSS MEXICO AND OVER THE PACIFIC OCEAN IN A DAY OR TWO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE FASTER AND A LITTLE TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT NOT AS MUCH SO AS A CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS SOME STRENGTHENING OVER THE WARM PACIFIC WATERS AND UNDER LIGHT VERTICAL SHEAR...BUT IT IS NOT KNOWN IF LARRY WILL SURVIVE THE JOURNEY ACROSS MEXICO. FORECASTER LAWRENCE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 05/0300Z 18.5N 93.5W 50 KT 12HR VT 05/1200Z 18.1N 93.7W 35 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 06/0000Z 17.5N 94.1W 30 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 06/1200Z 17.0N 94.5W 20 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 07/0000Z 16.5N 95.0W 20 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 08/0000Z 15.5N 96.0W 30 KT...OVER WATER 96HR VT 09/0000Z 15.0N 97.5W 30 KT...OVER WATER 120HR VT 10/0000Z 15.0N 99.0W 30 KT...OVER WATER NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:50:00 UTC