Tropical Storm LARRY

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TROPICAL STORM LARRY DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT OCT 04 2003
 
LARRY DOES NOT LOOK VERY IMPRESSIVE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.  BUT SINCE
THE LAST AIRCRAFT INDICATED WINDS STILL NEAR 50 KNOTS SOUTHEAST OF
THE CENTER...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED WILL BE KEPT AT 50 KNOTS.  THE
CENTER IS NOT FAR FROM LAND AND SHOULD BE INLAND IN 12 HOURS...BY
WHICH TIME SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING SHOULD HAVE OCCURRED...IF IT HAS
NOT ALREADY DONE SO.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 155/03.  THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE
UNANIMOUS ABOUT MOVING LARRY ACROSS MEXICO AND OVER THE PACIFIC
OCEAN IN A DAY OR TWO.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE
FASTER AND A LITTLE TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT NOT AS
MUCH SO AS A CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS.
 
THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS SOME STRENGTHENING OVER THE WARM PACIFIC
WATERS AND UNDER LIGHT VERTICAL SHEAR...BUT IT IS NOT KNOWN IF
LARRY WILL SURVIVE THE JOURNEY ACROSS MEXICO.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      05/0300Z 18.5N  93.5W    50 KT
 12HR VT     05/1200Z 18.1N  93.7W    35 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     06/0000Z 17.5N  94.1W    30 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     06/1200Z 17.0N  94.5W    20 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     07/0000Z 16.5N  95.0W    20 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     08/0000Z 15.5N  96.0W    30 KT...OVER WATER
 96HR VT     09/0000Z 15.0N  97.5W    30 KT...OVER WATER
120HR VT     10/0000Z 15.0N  99.0W    30 KT...OVER WATER
 
 
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