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Tropical Storm LARRY (Text)

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TROPICAL STORM LARRY DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT OCT 04 2003
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RECONNAISSANCE REPORTS INDICATE THAT LARRY HAS
CHANGED LITTLE THIS AFTERNOON. A MAXIMUM 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF
59 KT WAS FOUND IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT...WHICH ROUGHLY EQUALS
48-KT SURFACE WINDS...SO THE INTENSITY IS BEING MAINTAINED AT 50
KT. HOWEVER...THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS INCREASED TO 996 MB...WHICH
WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE MAY BE STARTING TO WEAKEN.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 180/03. LARRY MADE A QUICK LURCH TO
THE SOUTH EARLIER THIS MORNING...BUT THE LAST 3 RECON FIX POSITIONS
CAME IN ALMOST ON TOP OF EACH OTHER. THEREFORE...A 12-HOUR AVERAGE
MOTION OF 3 KT WAS USED FOR THIS ADVISORY. OTHERWISE...THERE IS NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. ALL
OF THE NHC MODELS ARE NOW IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON TAKING LARRY
ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
ON THE PACIFIC SIDE OF MEXICO BY 72 HOURS.  THE MAIN DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN THE MODELS IS THE SPEED AT WHICH THE LARRY-CIRCULATION
EMERGES OVER THE PACIFIC. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO
THE PREVIOUS PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND IS JUST EAST OF AND SLOWER
THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS SINCE NOGAPS APPEARS TO BE TOO FAR EAST.
 
IT NOW APPEARS HIGHLY UNLIKELY THAT ANY SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING
WILL OCCUR BEFORE LANDFALL...BUT ANOTHER CONVECTIVE BURST MAY FIRE
OFF AGAIN TONIGHT AND SPIN UP THE VORTEX JUST A LITTLE BIT BEFORE
LANDFALL OCCURS. IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE AT THIS TIME EXACTLY
WHAT KIND OF STRUCTURE THE POST-LANDFALL CIRCULATION WILL LOOK LIKE
ONCE IT RE-EMERGES OVER THE PACIFIC OCEAN. THE WATER IS QUITE WARM
IN THAT REGION AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE FAVORABLE
FOR STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR. IF A LOW-LEVEL CENTER ACTUALLY SURVIVES
THE TREK ACROSS MEXICO...THEN THE 96- AND 120-HOUR INTENSITY
FORECASTS COULD BE TOO LOW.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      04/2100Z 18.7N  93.8W    50 KT
 12HR VT     05/0600Z 18.3N  93.8W    55 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     05/1800Z 17.8N  93.8W    45 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     06/0600Z 17.3N  94.0W    30 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
 48HR VT     06/1800Z 16.7N  94.3W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND
 72HR VT     07/1800Z 15.9N  94.9W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW PACIFIC
 96HR VT     08/1800Z 15.0N  96.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW PACIFIC
120HR VT     09/1800Z 14.5N  97.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW PACIFIC
 
 
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