ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM LARRY DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT SAT OCT 04 2003 SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CLOUD PRESENTATION IS A LITTLE BETTER TONIGHT WITH AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND A CURVED BAND TO THE EAST. THE MAXIMUM WIND AT FLIGHT LEVEL REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE SO FAR IS 46 KNOTS. I WAS TEMPTED TO LOWER THE INTENSITY BUT BECAUSE THE PLANE HAS NOT SAMPLED THE ENTIRE AREA DUE TO PROXIMITY TO LAND...AND THE CLOUD PATTERN IS A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED...AND THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 50 KNOTS. LARRY HAS A CHANCE TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE BIT BEFORE THE CIRCULATION BEGINS TO FURTHER INTERACT WITH LAND. LARRY HAS BEEN MEANDERING DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE VERY SLOWLY SOUTHWARD OR SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER WILL BE CROSSING THE COAST IN ABOUT 36 TO 48 HOURS. NONE OF THE GLOBAL MODELS BRING LARRY NORTHWARD. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/0900Z 19.4N 94.0W 50 KT 12HR VT 04/1800Z 19.3N 94.0W 60 KT 24HR VT 05/0600Z 18.9N 94.1W 60 KT 36HR VT 05/1800Z 18.5N 94.2W 60 KT 48HR VT 06/0600Z 18.1N 94.3W 40 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 07/0600Z 17.8N 94.4W 25 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 08/0600Z 17.6N 94.5W 20 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 09/0600Z 17.0N 95.0W 20 KT...INLAND NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:50:00 UTC