ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM LARRY DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT FRI OCT 03 2003 THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER REPORTED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 995 MB AT 17Z...ALONG WITH FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS THAT WOULD SUPPORT ABOUT 45 KT SURFACE WINDS. HOWEVER...LARRY HAS INCREASED IN ORGANIZATION IN BOTH SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY...AND BASED ON THESE MIXED SIGNALS THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 50 KT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT EVEN THOUGH THE TOPS ARE WARMING IN THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE BURST...THE RADAR PRESENTATION FROM ALVARADO MEXICO IS BECOMING MORE IMPRESSIVE. THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS A VERY UNCERTAIN 235/2. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY...AS LARRY REMAINS TRAPPED IN AN AREA OF WEAK STEERING CURRENTS AND IS LIKELY TO STAY THAT WAY FOR THE NEXT 3-5 DAYS. MOST DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE CALLS FOR A SLOW MOTION BETWEEN SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL UPDATE THE SLOW SOUTHWARD DRIFT FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. THIS MOTION SHOULD BE RATHER UNSTEADY...WITH JUMPS IN THE POSITION OF THE CENTER. THE MID-LEVEL VORTICITY CENTER EARLIER SEEN NORTHEAST OF LARRY SEEMS TO BE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AND WILL NOT LIKELY HAVE MUCH EFFECT ON THE STORM LARRY IS THE NORTH OF AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE...AND THIS IS EXPOSING THE STORM TO LIGHT/MODERATE WESTERLY SHEAR. LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SHEAR SHOULD DECREASE LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH WOULD ALLOW STRENGTHENING IF PROXIMITY TO LAND DOES NOT HINDER IT. A WILD CARD IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS THAT THE SLOW MOTION IS GIVING LARRY TIME TO UPWELL COLD WATER UNDERNEATH IT. SHOULD LARRY NOT MOVE...IT WILL EVENTUALLY UPWELL COLD ENOUGH WATER TO LITERALLY PUT THE CHILL ON INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER...IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW LONG THAT MIGHT TAKE. INITIAL AND FORECAST WIND RADII HAVE BEEN REVISED BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT DATA AND THE FORECAST PROXIMITY TO LAND. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/2100Z 19.9N 94.7W 50 KT 12HR VT 04/0600Z 19.6N 94.7W 50 KT 24HR VT 04/1800Z 19.4N 94.7W 55 KT 36HR VT 05/0600Z 19.2N 94.7W 55 KT 48HR VT 05/1800Z 18.9N 94.7W 60 KT 72HR VT 06/1800Z 18.4N 94.8W 60 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 07/1800Z 18.0N 95.0W 30 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 08/1800Z 17.5N 95.5W 20 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:59 UTC