ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM LARRY DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT THU OCT 02 2003 THE HIGHEST FLIGHT LEVEL WIND SPEED REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT THIS EVENING REMAINS THE 66 KNOTS AT 1500 FT REPORTED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SO THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS KEPT AT 50 KNOTS. THERE HAVE ALSO BEEN A COUPLE OF SHIP AND OIL RIG REPORTS OF NEAR 50 KNOTS. INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION SUGGESTING NO SHORT-TERM STRENGTHENING. BUT THERE IS PLENTY OF TIME FOR LARRY TO STRENGTHEN AS IT DRIFTS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...IF THE VERTICAL SHEAR NEAR 20 KNOTS IS NOT TOO MUCH OF A NEGATIVE FACTOR. THE SHIPS MODEL INDICATES STRENGTHENING TO NEAR HURRICANE FORCE BY 72 HOURS AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 235/02 BASED ON 24 HOURS OF MOTION. THE PAST 12 HOURS HAVE BEEN CLOSER TO 270/04. THE GLOBAL MODELS ALL SHOW A SLOW SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTWARD DRIFT FOR 3 DAYS AS THE STORM IS TRAPPED IN A WEAK STEERING CURRENT BETWEEN TWO HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES. AFTER 3 DAYS THE MODELS DIVERGE. THE GFS AND GFDL ARE NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH DAY 5 IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE NOGAPS MOVES THE STORM ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE PACIFIC BY DAY 4 AND THE UKMET MOVES THE STORM NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS MEXICO AFTER DAY 3. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS A CONSENSUS OF THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A VERY SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST AND IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WHEN THE MOTION IS NEAR ZERO...THE DIRECTION OF MOTION BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN. FORECASTER LAWRENCE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/0300Z 20.4N 94.1W 50 KT 12HR VT 03/1200Z 20.2N 94.2W 50 KT 24HR VT 04/0000Z 19.9N 94.4W 55 KT 36HR VT 04/1200Z 19.6N 94.6W 60 KT 48HR VT 05/0000Z 19.2N 94.9W 60 KT 72HR VT 06/0000Z 18.8N 95.1W 60 KT 96HR VT 07/0000Z 18.5N 95.5W 40 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 08/0000Z 18.0N 97.0W 20 KT...INLAND NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:59 UTC