ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM LARRY DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT THU OCT 02 2003 EVEN WITH VISIBLE IMAGERY...IT IS DIFFICULT TO FIND THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF LARRY. WHILE THE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE CENTER MAY BE A LITTLE SOUTHWEST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY POSITION...THE CENTER DEFINITION IS SO POOR THAT ANY RELOCATION WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR THE NEXT AIRCRAFT SCHEDULED FOR 18Z. OVERALL...LARRY APPEARS TO HAVE LOST SOME ORGANIZATION...AS THE CONVECTION IS REMOVED FROM THE CENTER AND LESS WIDESPREAD THAN YESTERDAY. LARRY REMAINS ESSENTIALLY STATIONARY BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES TO THE EAST AND WEST...AND LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THIS PATTERN TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48-72 HR. NHC TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO RESEMBLE SPOKES ON A WHEEL...ANOTHER SIGN THAT LARRY WILL GO NOWHERE FAST. THE FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY IN KEEPING LARRY STATIONARY THROUGH 48 HR...ALTHOUGH SOME CHANGES IN POSITION ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME DUE TO REFORMATION OF THE CENTER. AFTER 48 HR...A SLOW WESTWARD DRIFT IS FORECAST IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL. ONE ALTERNATE POSSIBILITY IS THAT THE NEXT COLD FRONT SCHEDULED TO ENTER THE GULF OF MEXICO BY 96 HR MAY FORCE LARRY SOUTHWARD. IF LATER MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS FRONT AND MOTION...THE FORECAST TRACK MAY HAVE TO BE SHIFTED SOUTHWARD. WHILE THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY FAVORABLE...LARRY IS DISORGANIZED ENOUGH THAT ANY STRENGTHENING SHOULD BE SLOW. THE FORECAST INTENSITY WILL CALL FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING AS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE LESS INTENSE SHIPS AND MORE INTENSE GFDL. WIND RADII HAVE BEEN REVISED BASED ON REPORTS FROM OIL RIGS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 02/1500Z 21.0N 93.5W 45 KT 12HR VT 03/0000Z 21.0N 93.5W 45 KT 24HR VT 03/1200Z 21.0N 93.5W 50 KT 36HR VT 04/0000Z 21.0N 93.5W 55 KT 48HR VT 04/1200Z 21.0N 93.5W 55 KT 72HR VT 05/1200Z 21.0N 94.0W 60 KT 96HR VT 06/1200Z 21.0N 94.5W 60 KT 120HR VT 07/1200Z 21.0N 95.0W 60 KT NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:59 UTC