ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 42 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT SUN OCT 05 2003 THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. KATE HAS MADE A SLIGHT NORTHEASTWARD JOG...BUT THIS IS BELIEVED TO BE A TEMPORARY MOTION AND A TURN BACK TO THE NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TO RESUME SHORTLY...SO THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 010/10. KATE IS CAUGHT BETWEEN AN AMPLIFYING LARGE-SCALE RIDGE TO THE EAST AND AN APPROACHING LONGWAVE TROUGH TO THE WEST. THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN THESE TWO SYNOPTIC-SCALE SYSTEMS SHOULD GRADUALLY ACCELERATE KATE NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD. THE INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO AFFECT KATE. THE CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT HAS ERODED AND THE EYE HAS BECOME CLOUD-COVERED. CONTINUED SLOW WEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR AND BY 36 HOURS KATE WILL BE OVER COLD WATER NORTH OF THE GULFSTREAM...AND ALSO LIKELY BECOMING ENTANGLED WITH A COLD FRONT. FULL EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED BY 48 HOURS...AND PERHAPS EVEN BY 36 HOURS WHEN THE CYCLONE IS LOCATED WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 06/0300Z 33.0N 56.1W 80 KT 12HR VT 06/1200Z 35.0N 55.8W 70 KT 24HR VT 07/0000Z 39.1N 54.5W 65 KT 36HR VT 07/1200Z 44.3N 50.8W 60 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 08/0000Z 50.0N 44.4W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 09/0000Z 59.0N 25.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 10/0000Z 60.0N 5.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 11/0000Z...EXTRATROPICAL EAST OF THE GREENWICH MERIDIAN NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:50:00 UTC